Yesterday, Guizhou Maotai passed the news: the stock price rose above 700! In the afternoon, it closed at 719.11 yuan, an increase of 4.51%. The market value has exceeded 900 billion yuan. At present, no institution is looking at Kweichow Moutai, and Goldman Sachs has raised its target price to 881 yuan.
Stock price: 719.11 yuan stock price is the highest in the two cities
Guizhou Moutai shares reached a new high on the 16th, breaking through the 700 yuan integer mark, closing at 719.11 yuan, and driving the CSI liquor index up nearly 3%. Alcoholic liquors such as Jiugui Liquor and Luzhou Laojiao also went up, and Liquor B and Liquor B benefited.
Since the beginning of this year, the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has risen by 116%. The stock price of Moutai is the highest in the two cities, and the Gigabit, which is in the second place, has a distance of 450 yuan. Guizhou's GDP in 2016 was 1,173.4 billion yuan, ranking 25th among the 31 provinces in the country. According to the total market value of listed companies in 31 provinces, according to the data provided by the same flower, the total market value of Guizhou Maotai 820 billion yuan exceeds the total market value of listed companies in 17 provinces such as Liaoning, Xinjiang and Shaanxi. Among the 66 industries counted by Straight Flush, if Kweichow Moutai is ranked as an industry, its total market capitalization can be ranked 26th, higher than 41 listed companies in retail, steel, defense, military, textile, military and other industries. Market value.
However, some market observers have found that as the stock price of Maotai continues to rise in the near future, the overall stock of Shanghai Stock Connect is reducing its position. On 28 trading days since October, Kweichow Moutai ranked the top 10 active stocks in Shanghai Stock Connect on each trading day, and 19 of them had a net outflow of Shanghai Stock Connect. Overall, the cumulative net outflow of Shanghai Stock Connect in the above 28 trading days was 1.829 billion yuan.
Expectation: The agency adjusts the target price of 881 yuan
Recently, Goldman Sachs raised the 12-month target price of Kweichow Moutai from 745.69 yuan to 881 yuan, an increase of 18%, and maintained a Buy rating. This is the second time Goldman Sachs raised the target price of Maotai this month. On November 1, Goldman Sachs raised its target price from 648.42 yuan to 745.69 yuan. The price of Goldman Sachs after the increase was more than the 845 yuan previously given by CICC, which became the highest level of Bloomberg's aggregate target price. Goldman Sachs analysts said that Maotai, who has realized the high gross profit of dealers, is selling a large portion of its products on its own cloud e-commerce platform through the “new retail” model. At present, up to 90% of Guizhou Maotai products are sold by third parties through distributors. For example, Maotai, which has a retail price of 1,500 yuan, has a gross profit of 580 yuan.
On November 1, Goldman Sachs released a report saying that China's high-end liquor and mid-to-high-end liquor stocks will continue to grow, given the continued recovery of the Chinese liquor market in the third quarter of this year, especially the significant recovery in profitability. After Kweichow broke the "6" in Guizhou, many domestic brokers or institutions also raised their target prices. CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, Shenwan Hongyuan, China Merchants Securities, etc. gave a target price of more than 700 yuan. Straight Flush data also shows that in the past year, 119 institutions have given a “buy” rating, 51 institutions have given “overweight” ratings, and “neutral”, “reduce” and “sell” ratings have been rated at 0. . This means that no institution is looking at Kweichow Moutai. Su Xin of Essence Securities believes that the ultimate market value of Maotai is 1.85 trillion yuan, more than double the current market value.
Xinhua News Agency: Remind investors not to blindly
In response to the soaring share price of Kweichow Moutai, Xinhuanet issued a statement yesterday that the cornerstone of the trend of supporting Maotai slow cattle is the steady increase in the performance of Maotai. At the same time, investors should be reminded to be treated rationally and not blindly. In this regard, Dong Taizhen, a manager of the Taitai Fund, said that Weihua.com has barely discussed the individual companies, which seems to be the first time.
Xinhuanet article analysis, inventory of Guizhou Maotai's slow cattle "capital", you can find: Maotai used the adjustment period of the entire industry, completed its own market transformation, first, government consumption has rapidly declined to almost negligible, Maotai has become The quality of consumer goods on the table of Chinese people; the second is to change from “single product” to “133 strategy”. Maotai successfully realized the comprehensive upgrade of the operation mechanism; the third is to expand the overseas market and initially form a global layout. In 2017, the liquor sector recovered in an all-round way, and Maotai was naturally more strongly pushed up than in the past.
Statistics show that in 2001, Guizhou Moutai revenue was 1.618 billion and net profit was 328 million. In 2016, the company's revenue was 38.862 billion, and its net profit rose to 16.718 billion. In the first three quarters of 2017, Kweichow Moutai has fully surpassed its 2016 results, with revenue and net profit increasing by 59.4% and 60.31% respectively.
The article also pointed out that the slow cattle that can last for 16 years can be described as rare treasures in the A-share market. The results of the seedlings will inevitably lead to unbearable pain. Short-sighted speculation will cause huge damage to value investment, and Maotai needs long-term companionship to give the best return. Whether the trend of Maotai slow cattle can continue, more decision-making power is in the hands of the market. For A-share investors, it is not easy to find a good stock in the stock market that can support the value investment concept. Moreover, Maotai stock and Moutai have the same scarcity and excellent return on investment, which is worthy of investment. A reasonable valuation is given to them. But this does not mean that the sharply rising stock price is the best judgment of the value of Maotai. Rational investment behavior should not be manifested blindly at any time.
Text / reporter Zhao Xinpei Photo / Oriental IC
Maotai reminded the risk last night
Kweichow Moutai was released last night: The market's over-targeted stock price and valuation are not representative of the company's attitude. We hope that investors and consumers will look at it rationally and make prudent decisions.
Maotai said that the company's stock price has risen a lot in the near future. The company will continue to do a good job in production and operation. It also solemnly invites investors to pay attention to investment risks, rational investment, and not blindly follow suit.
The old white dry wine released a notice recently made a similar warning risk. Laobai dry wine said that the company is concerned that the company's stock will increase significantly after the resumption of trading. The company's current price-earnings ratio is significantly higher than the average level of listed companies in the industry. There are no statements of material information that should be disclosed but not disclosed. Due to the outstanding performance of the liquor sector, the old white dry wine was strong after the resumption of trading, and closed for the sixth consecutive trading day in the daily limit, the stock hit a record high on the 15th.
Source: Beijing Youth Daily